Estimasi Periode Ulang Gempa Pulau Mentawai Menggunakan Distribusi Weibull dan Gumbel

Authors

  • Mayang Putri Andini Laboratorium Fisika Bumi, Jurusan Fisika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Andalas
  • Dwi Pujiastuti

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25077/jfu.8.4.373-379.2019

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan nilai periode ulang gempa Pulau Mentawai menggunakan distribusi Weibull dan Gumbel. Dalam penelitian ini akan ditentukan distribusi yang paling cocok untuk menghitung periode ulang gempa di Pulau Mentawai, yang dinilai berdasarkan persentase nilai standar errornya. Periode ulang dihitung untuk gempa dengan episenter Segmen Sipora-Pagai dan Segmen Siberut. Data gempa yang digunakan adalah data gempa sejak bulan Januari 1920- Juli 2019, dengan magnitudo ≥ 5 Mw dan kedalaman ≤ 100 km. Data gempa kemudian dikelompokkan menjadi tiga kelas berdasarkan magnitudonya yaitu (5,0-5,4) Mw, (5,5-5,9)Mw, serta (6,0-6,8) Mw, dan diolah menggunakan software Mathematica versi 11. Periode ulang gempa Segmen Sipora Pagai menggunakan distribusi Weibull berkisar dari 1,2 tahun-7,3 tahun, dan menggunakan distribusi Gumbel 2,8 tahun-6 tahun untuk gempa 5,0 Mw-6,8 Mw. Periode ulang gempa Segmen Siberut untuk rentang magnitudo yang sama dengan Segmen Sipora-Pagai berkisar 1,1 tahun-3,8 tahun dengan menggunakan distribusi Weibull, dan 1,6 tahun -3,2 tahun menggunakan distribusi Gumbel. Distribusi yang paling cocok digunakan untuk periode ulang Pulau Mentawai adalah distribusi Weibull karena memiliki nilai standar error yang lebih kecil, dengan persentase untuk Segmen Sipora-Pagai sebesar 46% dan Segmen Siberut sebesar 31%.

Kata kunci:  periode ulang, Weibull, Gumbel, standar error, Gempa, Mentawai

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Published

2019-11-26

How to Cite

Andini, M. P., & Pujiastuti, D. (2019). Estimasi Periode Ulang Gempa Pulau Mentawai Menggunakan Distribusi Weibull dan Gumbel. Jurnal Fisika Unand, 8(4), 373–379. https://doi.org/10.25077/jfu.8.4.373-379.2019

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 4 (2019)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2019 Mayang Putri Andini, Dwi Pujiastuti

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